Great Powers in Central and Eastern Europe: Dynamics and Prospects

The United States, EU members, and Russia share extensive and important interests in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in terms of geo-security, energy, and values. The US–EU–Russia trilateral interaction in this region features three characteristics: intensifying security competition between Washington and Moscow; closer transatlantic coordination against Russia; and growing wariness about China’s larger economic footprint. New changes have taken place in the regional distribution of power amid continued China–US competition, increasingly diverging values among the United States, Germany, and CEE countries like Poland and Hungary, and heightening geopolitical tensions between Washington and Germany on the one hand and Russia on the other. China–CEEC (CEE countries) cooperation is also coming under mounting geopolitical pressure, owing to Washington’s containment policy toward China, the EU’s weakening control over the CEE countries, Russia’s shift from a defensive to an offensive posture in response to Western sanctions, the new German government’s values-based diplomacy, and the European Commission’s new China policy. However, the transatlantic world is not a monolith. The EU’s weakening control over CEE countries and Washington’s deteriorating relations with Poland and Hungary are bringing potential opportunities for furthering China–CEEC cooperation. The aforementioned factors merit closer attention as important variables in CEE countries’ China policies.