美国奶牛场转型与退出，1987-2017

IF 1.6 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics Pub Date : 2022-03-17 DOI:10.1017/aae.2022.1

Miyeon Son, Jessica A. Richard, D. Lambert

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引用次数: 4

摘要

摘要本分析考察了1987–2017年美国乳制品行业的总体结构变化。我们使用半参数马尔可夫过程模型估计了48个较低状态中每一个状态的群体规模、进入或退出的操作变化的可能性。中小型乳制品的寿命与较高的乳制品利润率和生产力的提高相关。乳制品消费者支出的增加与较小的经营退出有关。在大多数州，行业动态显示出持续的整合趋势。自2002年以来，大多数州的每个州和所有规模类别的退出概率都显著增加。

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U.S. Dairy Farm Transition and Exits, 1987–2017

Abstract This analysis examines aggregate structural changes in the United States dairy industry, 1987–2017. We estimate the likelihood of operation changes in herd size, entry, or exits for each of the lower 48 states using a semiparametric Markov process model. Small- and medium-sized dairy longevity correlates with higher dairy margins and productivity improvements. An increase in consumer expenditures on dairy products is associated with smaller operation exits. Industry dynamics exhibit a persistent trend toward consolidation in most states. The exit probability for each state and all size classes has increased significantly for most states since 2002.

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来源期刊

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： Published on behalf of the Southern Agricultural Economics Association, the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics is a forum for creative and scholarly work in agricultural economics and related areas. Contributions on methodology and applications in business, extension, research, and teaching phases of agricultural and applied economics are equally encouraged. As of 2015 (Vol 47), articles are published on an open access basis.