EU wood production vs. biodiversity goals – possible reconciliation in Finland?

ABSTRACT According to protection targets of EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030, 30% of EU’s land and sea area should be legally protected by 2030. While the actual targets and even terms are still to be defined, the strategy’s possible impacts can be simulated for policy support purposes. The strategy aims to increase protection by setting aside forests and extending closer-to-nature forest management practices. We simulated Finland’s forest resources with the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) considering the protection targets. According to our simulations, the total growing stock and net present value will be lower with the additional protection than by carrying on the business-as-usual management. The additional protection resulted in intensified harvesting in the remaining forest area available for wood supply with the current harvest level. This may weaken the positive ecological impacts of protection. Reducing the harvest level from the current level is not a likely alternative either, because the demand for biomass is predicted to increase in the future, while the supply is insufficient, and EU policies aim to avoid shifting the negative impacts of resource extraction outside the EU. The feasibility of the additional protection depends on the actual implementation and definitions.