Politics, Social and Economic Change, and Crime: Exploring the Impact of Contextual Effects on Offending Trajectories*

Do government policies increase the likelihood that some citizens will become persistent criminals? Using criminological concepts such as the idea of a “criminal career” and sociological concepts such as the life course, this article assesses the outcome of macro-level economic policies on individuals’ engagement in crime. Few studies in political science, sociology, or criminology directly link macroeconomic policies to individual offending. Employing individual-level longitudinal data, this article tracks a sample of Britons born in 1970 from childhood to adulthood and examines their offending trajectories through the early 1980s to see the effects of economic policies on individuals’ repeated offending. A model is developed with data from the British 1970 Birth Cohort Study that incorporates individuals, families, and schools and takes account of national-level economic policies (driven by New Right political ideas). Findings suggest that economic restructuring was a key causal factor in offending during the period. Criminologists are encouraged to draw on ideas from political science to help explain offending careers and show how political choices in the management of the economy encourage individual-level responses.