肯尼亚青年失业与经济增长的关系

Mutua Daniel Katumo, James N. Maingi
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引用次数: 3

摘要

过去几年,青年就业机会一直是肯尼亚政府的优先事项,并实施了各种政策以确保就业机会的增长。经济增长被认为是至关重要的,因为正增长率将鼓励外来投资并提高收入,这些收入可以用于长期的公共部门工程。然而,青年失业一直是肯尼亚的一个问题因素,在很大程度上影响着经济。本研究的总体目标是研究肯尼亚青年失业与经济增长之间的关系。该研究的具体目标是调查肯尼亚青年失业与经济增长之间的因果关系,并分析肯尼亚经济增长对青年失业的影响。研究的理论包括剩余价值理论、索洛-斯旺模型、奥肯定律和凯恩斯理论,这些理论解释了失业和经济增长的各个方面。收集辅助数据并用于说明变量之间的关系,而使用的方法是格兰杰因果检验和OLS。两变量之间存在单向因果关系,其中经济增长滞后导致青年失业,且两变量之间的系数为正。因此,奥肯定律系数不适用于青年失业率,而不适用于整体失业率。然而,系数有统计学意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Relationship between Youth Unemployment and Economic Growth in Kenya
Youth employment opportunities have been the priority by the Kenyan Government over the past years, and various policies have been implemented to assure the employment opportunities growth. Economic growth is reckoned to be essential since a positive growth rate will encourage inward investment and improve revenues, which can be spent on long-term public sector works. However, youth unemployment is a consistent problematic element in Kenya, affecting the economy to a large extent. The general objective of this study is to examine the relationship between youth unemployment and economic growth in Kenya. The specific objectives of the study are to investigate the causal relationship between youth unemployment and economic growth in Kenya and to analyze the effect of economic growth on youth unemployment in Kenya. The theories studied include the theory of surplus-value, Solow-swan model, Okun's law, and Keynesian theory, which explain the aspects of unemployment and economic growth. Secondary data was collected and used to illustrate the relationship between the variables, while the methodology used was the Granger causality test and OLS. A unidirectional causal relationship existed linking the two variables, where the lags of economic growth granger cause youth unemployment, and the coefficient between the two variables was positive. Hence Okun's law coefficient didn't apply when it comes to youth unemployment as opposed to the overall unemployment. However, the coefficient was statistically significant.
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