2022年的朝鲜

IF 1.3 4区社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES

Asian Survey Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI:10.1525/as.2023.63.2.235

Sukhee Han, Mason Richey

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引用次数: 0

摘要

朝鲜的2022年在很大程度上延续了2020 - 2021年的政治/经济、军事和外交动态，但带有不同的口音。考虑到军事/核现代化的路径依赖、国内政治/经济结构限制以及东亚地缘战略形势，2023年朝鲜可能会继续这些趋势。两大问题迫在眉睫。(1)新冠疫情后，朝鲜将如何开放经济?(2)朝鲜将如何管理朝韩关系，朝鲜半岛是否正走向美韩同盟与朝鲜之间长期威慑关系的安全困境溢出为动态冲突的局面?

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North Korea in 2022

North Korea’s 2022 was largely a continuation of the political/economic, military, and diplomatic dynamic from 2020–21, but with different accents. Given the path dependence of military/nuclear modernization, domestic political/economic structural constraints, and the geostrategic situation in East Asia, 2023 in North Korea is likely to continue these same trends. Two big questions loom. (1) How will North Korea open up from COVID border closures, which might make better economic performance possible? (2) How will North Korea manage inter-Korean relations, and is the Korean Peninsula headed for a situation in which the security dilemma of a long-term deterrence relationship between the US–South Korea alliance and North Korea spills over into kinetic conflict?

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来源期刊

Asian Survey AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

1.80

自引率

22.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The only academic journal of its kind produced in the United States, Asian Survey provides a comprehensive retrospective of contemporary international relations within South, Southeast, and East Asian nations. As the Asian community’s matrix of activities becomes increasingly complex, it is essential to have a sourcebook for sound analysis of current events, governmental policies, socio-economic development, and financial institutions. In Asian Survey you’ll find that sourcebook. Asian Survey consistently publishes articles by leading American and foreign scholars, whose views supplement and contest meanings disseminated by the media.