Lessened allied dependence, policy tradeoffs, and undermining autonomy: focusing on the US-ROK and US-Philippines alliances

Abstract This research sheds light on the structural causes of the complex and often seemingly contradictory aspects of junior allies’ behavior in an era of global power rivalry. These relatively smaller US allies must deepen cooperation with the US to address some critical security challenges that cannot be dealt with alone, but have failed in three key ways. First, the less capable the US becomes via dwindling resources reserved for meeting allied security needs, the more likely the allied dependence on US military protection is proportionately reduced in the absence of viable alternatives. Second, China’s attempts to drive a wedge between the US and its allies compounds the perception of disunity that results in allied dependence being significantly reduced. Lastly, the smaller states have limited capacity to create a buffer to navigate the rivalry between the two larger nations. Two case studies, the US-ROK and US-Philippines alliances, indicate how junior allied behavior can be seen as contradictory to the allies’ own interests as a consequence of assuming tradeoffs that result from reacting to both major powers’ policy choices, which, in turn, undermines the ability of the smaller states to determine their own security policies.