朝鲜核学说的变化:因素与启示

IF 0.5 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Wook-Sik Cheong
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要朝鲜半岛正在不可逆转地滑向核时代。自朝鲜战争以来,美国对朝鲜民主主义人民共和国的核威胁一直存在。变数在于朝鲜是否会获得自己的核武库。但朝鲜在2018年至2019年的会谈中——更广泛地说,在过去三十年里——得出的结论是,对话和谈判毫无意义。与此相关,非常重要的是要认识到,自2019年夏天以来,朝鲜发生了根本性变化。其核心是朝鲜将其民族自豪感押在核计划上。金正恩领导下的平壤政权认为,其核计划不仅将加强国家安全,还将通过削减常规部队开支和促进从军事经济向民用经济的转变,为经济发展做出贡献。这一进程最终导致最高人民会议于2022年9月8日通过了一项关于朝鲜核政策的法律。金当时宣称,在法律上定义核政策“使我国作为核武器国家的地位不可逆转”。简而言之,朝鲜的核武器已经成为另一个不变的因素。这一事态发展意味着,解决朝鲜半岛问题需要一种新的方法。特别是,无核武器区作为朝鲜半岛核问题的解决方案很少被讨论,应该作为无核化的一种方法进行审查。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The DPRK’s Changed Nuclear Doctrine: Factors and Implications
ABSTRACT The Korean Peninsula is sliding irreversibly into a nuclear era. Since the Korean War, the nuclear threat of the United States toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been a constant. The variable was whether the DPRK would acquire its own nuclear arsenal. But the conclusion that the DPRK reached during the talks in 2018–2019—and more broadly, over the past three decades – is that dialogue and negotiations are pointless. In connection with that, it is very important to recognize that the DPRK has fundamentally changed since the summer of 2019. At the heart of that is the nuclear program on which the DPRK has staked its national pride. The Pyongyang regime under Kim Jong-un believes that its nuclear program will not only reinforce national security but also contribute to economic development by enabling spending cuts on conventional forces and promoting a shift from the military to the civilian economy. That process culminated in the adoption of a law about the DPRK’s nuclear policy by the Supreme People’s Assembly on 8 September 2022. Kim declared on that occasion that defining nuclear policy in law had “made our state’s status as a nuclear weapon state irreversible”. In short, the DPRK’s nuclear weapons have become another constant. This development means that a new approach is required to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue. In particular, the nuclear weapons-free zone, which was rarely discussed as a solution to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, should be reviewed as a methodology for denuclearization.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
36
审稿时长
12 weeks
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