清洗的冲动:预测政变失败后埃尔多安的政治生存

IF 1.4 3区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Alternatives Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI:10.1177/0304375419842749

Malcolm R. Easton, Randolph M. Siverson

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引用次数: 4

摘要

根据早期对政治领导人政变失败后生存的研究，我们对土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安在2016年政变失败后可能的政治生存进行了事前抽样估计。根据对他上任时间的假设，我们得出结论，他的任期可能会持续到2026年，这一结果是在他最近呼吁提前选举及其影响之前得出的。最后，我们简要讨论了埃尔多安总统可能任期的政策影响。

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The Urge to Purge: Forecasting Erdogan’s Political Survival Following the Failed Coup

Drawing upon earlier research on the post failed coup survival of political leaders, we offer an ex ante in sample estimate of the likely political survival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the fail coup of 2016. Depending on the assumption made about when he entered office, we conclude that his tenure is likely to endure until 2026, a result that was reached before his recent call for a snap election and its implications. We conclude with a brief discussion of the policy implications of President Erdogan’s likely length of tenure.

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来源期刊

Alternatives INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

15.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： A peer-reviewed journal, Alternatives explores the possibilities of new forms of political practice and identity under increasingly global conditions. Specifically, the editors focus on the changing relationships between local political practices and identities and emerging forms of global economy, culture, and polity. Published in association with the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (India).