The value of pension reforms for late working life: evidence from Sweden

PurposeDriven by the aim to increase the participation of older people in the labour force and to extend people's working lives, the Swedish Parliament passed a bill in 1998 to increase the pension eligibility age from 60 to 61 years and establish a notional defined-contribution (NDC) plan. In this article, the authors investigate the impacts towards the prolongation of working lives expected from such an intervention.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply a multinomial probabilistic model based on Swedish registry data on the birth cohorts 1937–1938 (n = 102,826) and observe differences in exit behaviour between eligible and non-eligible individuals.FindingsThe authors find that the cohorts eligible to the pension reform exit the labour market at a later age compared to non-eligible cohorts at the 61-years cut-off. The authors also find that the effect persists in the long term. Furthermore, the authors find that both men and women are equally struck by the reform.Originality/valueWhile there exist many descriptive reports and theoretical analyses on the costs and benefits of pension reforms, this study is the first one to empirically analyse the effect of the first European NDC pay-as-you go pension plan on the potential exclusion of old-aged workers.