模拟巴西南部Hermenegildo海滩海岸退缩中海平面上升和沉积物收支的影响

Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences
S. A. Figueiredo, L. Calliari, A. Machado
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引用次数: 13

摘要

摘要气候变化的影响,如海平面加速上升、波浪气候变化和对沉积物收支的干扰,预计将在世界各地的沿海地区造成一系列不利影响。海平面上升预计会导致海岸线衰退,沉积物不足也会产生类似的影响。由于海平面上升率和沉积物预算存在很大的不确定性,因此确定海岸对每一种扰动的敏感性是相关的。在这种情况下,本文通过使用聚合海岸模型DRanSTM(扩张随机海岸线转换模型)进行基于风险的评估,根据模拟的海岸衰退,对这些参数中的每一个进行了定量评估。在每一个单独的计算机模拟中,都为侵蚀性海岸线设定了沉积物预算和海平面情景:巴西南部南里奥格兰德州的赫梅内吉尔多海滩。本研究未直接考虑波浪气候变化的影响。然而,这种变化的间接衡量标准应反映在沿海沉积物预算中。模拟结果表明,在目前的海平面上升率下,沉积物不足对海岸衰退起到了控制作用。相反,在2100年预测的海平面上升较高的情况下,考虑到历史沉积物短缺将持续,平均海岸线衰退将由海平面上升决定。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling the effects of sea-level rise and sediment budget in coastal retreat at Hermenegildo Beach, Southern Brazil
Abstract Climate change effects such as accelerated sea-level rise, wave climate alteration and disturbances on sediment-budgets are anticipated to lead to a range of adverse impacts in coastal regions around the world. A rise in sea-level is expected to cause shoreline recession, and a sediment deficit can have a similar effect. Since large uncertainties exist in relation to sea-level rise rates and sediment budgets, it is relevant to determine how sensitive the coast is to each of these disturbances. In this context, this paper provides a quantitative evaluation of each of these parameters in terms of modeled coastal recession through risk-based assessments using an aggregated coastal model, the DRanSTM (Dilating Random Shoreface Translation Model). In each separate computer simulation, a sediment budget and a sea-level scenario were set for an erosional coastal stretch: Hermenegildo Beach, Rio Grande do Sul state in southern Brazil. Effects of changes in wave climate were not directly considered in this study. However, indirect measures of such changes should be reflected on coastal sediment budgets. Simulation results demonstrate that under present-day sea-level rise rates, sediment deficit exerts control over coastal recession. Conversely, under the higher forecasted sea-level rise for the year 2100, mean shoreline recession will be dictated by sea-level rise, considering historical sediment deficit will be sustained.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Brazilian Journal of Oceanography covers the entire spectrum of disciplines within the science of oceanography, publishing articles dealing with the biological oceanography, physical oceanography, marine chemistry, sedimentology and geology, from coastal and estuarine waters out to the open sea. Emphasis is placed on inter-disciplinary process-oriented contributions. BJO also publishes issues dedicated to results of scientific meetings and of large inter-disciplinary studies or topical issues on specific subjects. The audience is composed by physical, chemical and biological oceanographers, marine sedimentologists, geologists and geochemists, marine biologists and ecologists. Papers sent to BJO must present results from original research and be written in english.
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