利用滞后气候指数开发西澳大利亚降雨量预测模型

Q2 Social Sciences

International Journal of Water Pub Date : 2019-07-30 DOI:10.1504/IJW.2019.10022807

F. Islam, M. Imteaz

{"title":"利用滞后气候指数开发西澳大利亚降雨量预测模型","authors":"F. Islam, M. Imteaz","doi":"10.1504/IJW.2019.10022807","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the study was to develop a model to forecast autumn rainfall several months in advance for south-west division (SWD) of Western Australia (WA), by identifying and incorporating the relationship among major climate indices such as dipole mode index (DMI), southern oscillation index (SOI), ENSO Modoki index (EMI) and autumn rainfall. Eight rainfall stations from two regions of SWD were considered. Statistical analysis showed that DMI, SOI, Nino3.4, Nino3 and Nino4 have significant correlations with autumn rainfall for all these stations. On the other hand, EMI showed significant correlations for the stations in the north-coast region only. Meanwhile, DMI effect has been found stronger for all the stations compared to other climate indices. Several multiple regression analyses were conducted using lagged ENSO-DMI, lagged SOI-DMI and lagged EMI-DMI indices, and significant increase in the correlations between autumn rainfall and climate indices was observed. However, only statistically significant models were suggested.","PeriodicalId":39788,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Water","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Development of prediction model for forecasting rainfall in Western Australia using lagged climate indices\",\"authors\":\"F. Islam, M. Imteaz\",\"doi\":\"10.1504/IJW.2019.10022807\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The aim of the study was to develop a model to forecast autumn rainfall several months in advance for south-west division (SWD) of Western Australia (WA), by identifying and incorporating the relationship among major climate indices such as dipole mode index (DMI), southern oscillation index (SOI), ENSO Modoki index (EMI) and autumn rainfall. Eight rainfall stations from two regions of SWD were considered. Statistical analysis showed that DMI, SOI, Nino3.4, Nino3 and Nino4 have significant correlations with autumn rainfall for all these stations. On the other hand, EMI showed significant correlations for the stations in the north-coast region only. Meanwhile, DMI effect has been found stronger for all the stations compared to other climate indices. Several multiple regression analyses were conducted using lagged ENSO-DMI, lagged SOI-DMI and lagged EMI-DMI indices, and significant increase in the correlations between autumn rainfall and climate indices was observed. However, only statistically significant models were suggested.\",\"PeriodicalId\":39788,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Water\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-07-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Water\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJW.2019.10022807\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Social Sciences\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Water","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1504/IJW.2019.10022807","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Social Sciences","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

摘要

本研究的目的是通过识别和整合主要气候指数如偶极子模式指数(DMI)、南方涛动指数(SOI)、ENSO Modoki指数(EMI)与秋季降雨量之间的关系，建立一个提前几个月预测西澳大利亚州西南分区(SWD)秋季降雨量的模型。我们考虑了来自社署两个地区的八个雨量站。统计分析表明，DMI、SOI、Nino3.4、Nino3和Nino4与各台站秋季降水均有显著相关。另一方面，EMI仅对北海岸地区的台站显示出显著的相关性。与其他气候指数相比，所有台站的DMI效应都更强。利用滞后的ENSO-DMI指数、滞后的SOI-DMI指数和滞后的EMI-DMI指数进行多元回归分析，发现秋季降水与气候指数的相关性显著增加。然而，只提出了统计显著的模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Development of prediction model for forecasting rainfall in Western Australia using lagged climate indices

The aim of the study was to develop a model to forecast autumn rainfall several months in advance for south-west division (SWD) of Western Australia (WA), by identifying and incorporating the relationship among major climate indices such as dipole mode index (DMI), southern oscillation index (SOI), ENSO Modoki index (EMI) and autumn rainfall. Eight rainfall stations from two regions of SWD were considered. Statistical analysis showed that DMI, SOI, Nino3.4, Nino3 and Nino4 have significant correlations with autumn rainfall for all these stations. On the other hand, EMI showed significant correlations for the stations in the north-coast region only. Meanwhile, DMI effect has been found stronger for all the stations compared to other climate indices. Several multiple regression analyses were conducted using lagged ENSO-DMI, lagged SOI-DMI and lagged EMI-DMI indices, and significant increase in the correlations between autumn rainfall and climate indices was observed. However, only statistically significant models were suggested.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

International Journal of Water Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development

CiteScore

0.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJW is a fully refereed journal, providing a high profile international outlet for analyses and discussions of all aspects of water, environment and society.