Estimating spatial variation in origination and extinction in deep time: a case study using the Permian–Triassic marine invertebrate fossil record

Abstract. Understanding spatial variation in origination and extinction can help to unravel the mechanisms underlying macroevolutionary patterns. Although methods have been developed for estimating global origination and extinction rates from the fossil record, no framework exists for applying these methods to restricted spatial regions. Here, we test the efficacy of three metrics for regional analysis, using simulated fossil occurrences. These metrics are then applied to the marine invertebrate record of the Permian and Triassic to examine variation in extinction and origination rates across latitudes. Extinction and origination rates were generally uniform across latitudes for these time intervals, including during the Capitanian and Permian–Triassic mass extinctions. The small magnitude of this variation, combined with the possibility of its attribution to sampling bias, cautions against linking any observed differences to contrasting evolutionary dynamics. Our results indicate that origination and extinction levels were more variable across clades than across latitudes.