澳大利亚对大国威胁的认识和领导层的回应

IF 1.3
Asia Policy Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.1353/asp.2022.0059
Peter K. Lee, A. Carr
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引用次数: 0

摘要

执行摘要:本文认为,澳大利亚在美中竞争中的选择在很大程度上受到了该国总理不同角色概念的影响,产生的结果与对中等权力行为的结构性预期不一致。尽管贸易仍在快速发展,但与北京的关系已变得对立。与此同时,与华盛顿的关系似乎充满了亲密感,但也经常出现分歧。通常有三种解释来解释澳大利亚与两个大国不断发展的关系:不断变化的力量平衡、联盟压力和国家利益。然而,这些都不能充分解释澳大利亚近年来表现的原因和方式的变化。相反,2013年至2022年间,澳大利亚三位总理——托尼·阿博特、马尔科姆·特恩布尔和斯科特·莫里森——的不同角色观更好地解释了澳大利亚的选择。具体而言,基于这些领导人的兴趣和变革欲望领域的角色概念类型显示了他们如何以不同的方式应对类似的外部压力,从而表明了领导人对中等大国如何应对大国的决定性影响。考虑到安东尼·阿尔巴内塞最近于2022年5月当选,现在确定他的领导角色概念还为时过早,但国内角色概念很可能。政策含义•澳大利亚最近对中国和美国的选择和行动远比关于中等大国对大国竞争的反应的辩论中所反映的更具偶然性和领导者驱动性。•更深入地了解国内政治动态和国家领导人的个人动机,有助于解释不符合直接平衡选择的反应。•即使国内和国际限制缩小了替代领导角色概念的可用性,中等权力机构仍有相当大的空间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Australia's Great-Power Threat Perceptions and Leadership Responses
executive summary:This essay argues that Australia's choices in the U.S.-China rivalry have been significantly shaped by the different role conceptions of the country's prime ministers, producing outcomes at odds with structural expectations for middle-power behavior.main argument Australia's relations with China and the U.S. are in a state of flux. Relations with Beijing have turned antagonistic, though trade continues apace. Meanwhile, relations with Washington seem infused by intimacy, yet also feature regular bouts of divergence. Three explanations are commonly offered to explain Australia's evolving relations with both great powers: the changing balance of power, alliance pressure, and national interests. However, none of these sufficiently explain variations in why and how Australia has behaved in recent years. Instead, the different role conceptions of Australia's three prime ministers between 2013 and 2022—Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, and Scott Morrison—better explain Australia's choices. Specifically, a typology of role conceptions based on these leaders' domains of interest and desire for change shows how they responded differently to similar external pressures and thus demonstrates the decisive impact of leaders in how middle powers respond to great powers. It is still too early to identify Anthony Albanese's leadership role conception, given his recent election in May 2022, but a domestic role conception is likely.policy implications • Australia's recent choices and actions toward China and the U.S. have been far more contingent and leader-driven than is often reflected in the debate over middle-power responses to great-power competition.• A deeper appreciation of domestic political dynamics and the personal motivations of national leaders can help explain responses that do not conform to straightforward balancing choices.• There is considerable scope for middle-power agency even as domestic and international constraints narrow the availability of alternative leadership role conceptions.
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来源期刊
Asia Policy
Asia Policy Arts and Humanities-History
CiteScore
0.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
55
期刊介绍: Asia Policy is a peer-reviewed scholarly journal presenting policy-relevant academic research on the Asia-Pacific that draws clear and concise conclusions useful to today’s policymakers.
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