Brian N. Belcher, A. Degaetano, F. Masters, J. Crandell, Murray J. Morrison
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引用次数: 0
摘要
提出了一种求得与降雨同时发生的极端风速气候学的方法。同时发生的风和雨可以迫使水通过建筑物的墙壁组件,如窗户,造成建筑物损坏和保险损失。为了量化这种危险,极值分布适合于在特定报告降雨强度的1分钟间隔内记录的3秒风速峰值数据。这改进了以前量化风驱动雨危害的尝试,即独立计算风速和降雨强度概率,并使用每小时的数据,这些数据不能保证同时出现的峰值风(仅代表一小时内几秒钟的间隔)和整个小时累积的降雨。该方法应用于美国东南部,那里是风力驱动的降雨危险最明显的地方。对于最低降雨强度,计算的风速极值与忽略降雨发生的公布值一致。这种对应关系对于将降雨强度相关的风速返回期与已建立的极端风统计数据相一致是可取的。从俄克拉何马州到墨西哥湾沿岸和大西洋沿岸的站点,在降雨量≥0.254 mm min - 1的情况下,最大50年重现期风速超过45 ms - 1。对于最大雨强bb0 2.54 mm min - 1, 50年回复期风速降至35 ms - 1,但发生在相似的区域。该方法也被应用于东南以外的气象站,以证明其在将风雨危害纳入美国建筑标准方面的适用性。
Development of an extreme wind-driven rain climatology for the southeastern United States using one-minute rainfall and peak wind speed data
A method is presented to obtain the climatology of extreme wind speeds coincident with the occurrence of rain. The simultaneous occurrence of wind and rain can force water through building wall components such as windows, resulting in building damage and insured loss. To quantify this hazard, extreme value distributions are fit to peak 3-second wind speed data recorded during 1-minute intervals with specific reported rain intensities. This improves upon previous attempts to quantify the wind-driven rain hazard, that computed wind speed and rainfall intensity probabilities independently and used hourly data which cannot assure the simultaneous occurrence of peak wind which represents only a several-second interval within the hour and rain which is accumulated over the entire hour.
The method is applied across the southeastern U.S., where the wind-driven rain hazard is most pronounced. For the lowest rainfall intensities, the computed wind speed extremes agree with published values that ignore rainfall occurrence. Such correspondence is desirable for aligning the rain-intensity-dependent windspeed return periods with established extreme wind statistics. Maximum 50-year return period wind speeds in conjunction with rainfall intensities ≥ 0.254 mm min−1 exceed 45 ms−1 in a swath from Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast and at stations along the immediate Atlantic Coast. For rainfall intensities >2.54 mm min−1 maximum, 50-year return period wind speeds decrease to 35 ms−1 but occur over a similar area. The methodology is also applied to stations outside the Southeast to demonstrate its applicability for incorporating the wind-driven rain hazard in U.S. building standards.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC) (ISSN: 1558-8424; eISSN: 1558-8432) publishes applied research on meteorology and climatology. Examples of meteorological research include topics such as weather modification, satellite meteorology, radar meteorology, boundary layer processes, physical meteorology, air pollution meteorology (including dispersion and chemical processes), agricultural and forest meteorology, mountain meteorology, and applied meteorological numerical models. Examples of climatological research include the use of climate information in impact assessments, dynamical and statistical downscaling, seasonal climate forecast applications and verification, climate risk and vulnerability, development of climate monitoring tools, and urban and local climates.