Economic analysis of bicycle tracks using the HDM-4 model - case study for São Paulo city

In addition to technical studies, bicycle paths should be a product of planning and investment policies considering the ability of projects to generate socioeconomic benefits, implementing policie’s objective analysis relevant to the feasibility of projects for the implementation of exclusive bike tracks.  In this paper the Non-Motorized Traffic (NTM) model of the HDM-4 (Highway Development and Management) software is applied for the analysis of different alternatives for bicycle lanes, evaluating aspects such as current and potential cyclists demand, operation speed, capital costs and economic profile of bicycle users. The combination of such variables leads to technical and economic alternatives whose analysis results relevant differences in their profitability indicators. The analyses were carried out considering two scenarios; the first comprises the analysis of the profitability of alternatives structured with normative guidelines that, in terms of speed, represent ideal operating conditions; the second scenario consists of a more realistic evaluation for the city of São Paulo, considering speed restrictions and diversifying the user profile according to the per capita income of the main regions of the city. The results reflect interregional diversity about the desirability of bikeway projects based solely on the monetary benefits of reduced travel times. The kern results point out financial risk of the projects as governed by speed and traffic, also requiring a demand of over 1000 bicycles/day and an operation that exceeds 8 km/h to support bicycle projects investments.