The limits of evidence-based anti-bribery law

Abstract:Evidence-based regulation is a term of art that refers to the process of making decisions about regulation based on evidence generated through systematic research. There is increasing pressure to treat evidence-based regulation as a global best practice, including in the area of anti-bribery law. Too little attention has been paid to the fact that under certain conditions evidence-based regulation is likely to be a less appealing method of decision making than the alternative – namely, relying on judgment. Those conditions are: it is difficult to collect data on either interventions or outcomes; accurate causal inferences are difficult to draw; there is little warrant for believing that the same causal relationships will apply in a new context; or the decision makers in question lack the capacity to undertake one of these tasks. These conditions are likely to be present in complex, transnational, decentralized, and dynamic forms of business regulation such as the global anti-bribery regime.