{"title":"突然停止是德国恶性通货膨胀的根源吗?","authors":"Elena Seghezza, Pierluigi Morelli","doi":"10.1017/S0968565020000062","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Since the publication of Cagan's seminal contribution in 1956 and its further development by Sargent (1982) there has been a growing literature that seeks to explain German hyperinflation in terms of the monetary hypothesis. However, this article shows that the origins of this hyperinflation can be traced back to a sudden stop that occurred in the summer of 1922 at a time when expectations that the German economy would stabilise began to subside. The reversal of capital flows that took place in those months led in the short term to a dramatic depreciation of the mark, a significant increase in prices and a decline in output. This decline sparked bitter social conflict that fuelled a wage and price spiral. This spiral was accommodated by monetary authorities, leading in turn to explosive inflation.","PeriodicalId":44063,"journal":{"name":"Financial History Review","volume":"27 1","pages":"161 - 186"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/S0968565020000062","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Was a sudden stop at the origin of German hyperinflation?\",\"authors\":\"Elena Seghezza, Pierluigi Morelli\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/S0968565020000062\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Since the publication of Cagan's seminal contribution in 1956 and its further development by Sargent (1982) there has been a growing literature that seeks to explain German hyperinflation in terms of the monetary hypothesis. However, this article shows that the origins of this hyperinflation can be traced back to a sudden stop that occurred in the summer of 1922 at a time when expectations that the German economy would stabilise began to subside. The reversal of capital flows that took place in those months led in the short term to a dramatic depreciation of the mark, a significant increase in prices and a decline in output. This decline sparked bitter social conflict that fuelled a wage and price spiral. This spiral was accommodated by monetary authorities, leading in turn to explosive inflation.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44063,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Financial History Review\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"161 - 186\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-07-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/S0968565020000062\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Financial History Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565020000062\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"HISTORY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Financial History Review","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0968565020000062","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"HISTORY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Was a sudden stop at the origin of German hyperinflation?
Since the publication of Cagan's seminal contribution in 1956 and its further development by Sargent (1982) there has been a growing literature that seeks to explain German hyperinflation in terms of the monetary hypothesis. However, this article shows that the origins of this hyperinflation can be traced back to a sudden stop that occurred in the summer of 1922 at a time when expectations that the German economy would stabilise began to subside. The reversal of capital flows that took place in those months led in the short term to a dramatic depreciation of the mark, a significant increase in prices and a decline in output. This decline sparked bitter social conflict that fuelled a wage and price spiral. This spiral was accommodated by monetary authorities, leading in turn to explosive inflation.
期刊介绍:
Financial History Review is the international forum for all scholars with interests in the development of banking, finance, and monetary matters. Its editors deliberately seek to embrace the broadest approach to publishing research findings within this growing historical specialism. Articles address all aspects of financial and monetary history, including technical and theoretical approaches, those derived from cultural and social perspectives and the interrelations between politics and finance. These presentations of current research are complemented by somewhat shorter pieces, specifically conceived as aids to research. Each issue contains a substantial review section, and every complete volume contains an annual bibliography.