Probability of Trajectory Deviation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle in Presence of Wind

Incorporating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the United States National Airspace System would demand enhanced airspace safety technologies for the safety of the UAVs, people, and property on the ground. One of the safety-critical factors to consider is the risk of a UAV deviating from its planned trajectory, which may result in loss of separation between other vehicles or obstacles or may cause early depletion of battery power. In this paper, we studied the effect of wind on UAV trajectory deviation by incorporating wind velocity as a drag component in a six-degrees-of-freedom trajectory simulation comprising a rotorcraft lumped-mass model. Both steady-state wind and wind turbulence effects were investigated. We validated our approach using real flight data from UAV experiments conducted at NASA Langley Research Center. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making by timely mitigation of current and future collision events in an uncertain and dynamic environment.