Predicting the Future of Protected Areas in the Region of the Highest Population Density in Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT The landscape surrounding protected areas (PAs) plays a big role in supporting the achievement of conservation goals. This paper examines demographic dynamics in the vicinity of Akagera National Park (ANP) both in time and space, considers its implication on land-use/land-cover (LULC) change of one of its neighboring districts, and involves the existing environmental planning policies to anticipate the fate of the ANP. Data retrieved from Rwanda Land Management and Use Authority (RLMUA) and from the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) were reinforced with field observation and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements taken within Gatsibo district where the study was conducted and injected into a Geographic Information System (GIS) for mapping and analysis. Findings revealed that in the next 50 years, the increasing human settlement and associated social-economic needs will erase any remnant wildlife hotspots in the ‘Unrestricted zone’ of the district and reclaim intrusion in its ‘Restricted zone’ of which ANP is part. This raises imminent fear of growing cases of encroachment of human activities into illegal and high-risk zones and a possible second de-gazettement of the park. The reversal of this trend requires the implementation of the local LULC plan and the promotion of the ecological lifestyle.