胡齐斯坦省植被在预期气候变化下的可能情景响应测试

IF 3.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Hadi Eskandari Damaneh, M. Jafari, H. Eskandari Damaneh, Marjan Behnia, A. Khoorani, J. Tiefenbacher
{"title":"胡齐斯坦省植被在预期气候变化下的可能情景响应测试","authors":"Hadi Eskandari Damaneh, M. Jafari, H. Eskandari Damaneh, Marjan Behnia, A. Khoorani, J. Tiefenbacher","doi":"10.1177/11786221211013332","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.","PeriodicalId":44801,"journal":{"name":"Air Soil and Water Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/11786221211013332","citationCount":"11","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Testing Possible Scenario-Based Responses of Vegetation Under Expected Climatic Changes in Khuzestan Province\",\"authors\":\"Hadi Eskandari Damaneh, M. Jafari, H. Eskandari Damaneh, Marjan Behnia, A. Khoorani, J. Tiefenbacher\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/11786221211013332\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":44801,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Air Soil and Water Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/11786221211013332\",\"citationCount\":\"11\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Air Soil and Water Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/11786221211013332\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Air Soil and Water Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/11786221211013332","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11

摘要

在人类活动不断增加并影响土地利用的发展中国家,对未来情景的预测很少。我们提出了一项研究,该研究基于对1984年至2015年伊朗胡齐斯坦省归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)、降水和温度数据的基线趋势的评估,这些数据来自地面和遥感来源。为了实现这一目标,使用了Sen的斜率估计量、Mann-Kendall检验和Pearson的相关检验。之后,使用加拿大地球系统模型(CanESM2)估计了降水和温度的未来趋势,然后用于估计未来两个时期的NDVI趋势:2016年至2046年和2046年至2075年。我们的结果表明,在基线期间,所有站点的降水量都有所减少:33.3%的站点呈现显著趋势,其他站点则不显著。同期,66.7%的站点气温升高,而NDVI在所有站点都有所下降。NDVI与降水呈正相关,NDVI与气温呈负相关。在第一个可能的未来时期,以及在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,NDVI和降水量减少,温度显著升高。此外,在未来第二个期间也观察到了同样的趋势;其中大多数具有统计学意义。我们的结论是,许多评估都是有效生态系统规划和决策的宝贵组成部分。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Testing Possible Scenario-Based Responses of Vegetation Under Expected Climatic Changes in Khuzestan Province
Projections of future scenarios are scarce in developing countries where human activities are increasing and impacting land uses. We present a research based on the assessment of the baseline trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and temperature data for the Khuzestan Province, Iran, from 1984 to 2015 compiled from ground-based and remotely sensed sources. To achieve this goal, the Sen’s slope estimator, the Mann-Kendall test, and Pearson’s correlation test were used. After that, future trends in precipitation and temperature were estimated using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model and were then used to estimate the NDVI trend for two future periods: from 2016 to 2046 and from 2046 to 2075. Our results showed that during the baseline period, precipitation decreased at all stations: 33.3% displayed a significant trend and the others were insignificant ones. Over the same period, the temperature increased at 66.7% of stations while NDVI decreased at all stations. The NDVI–precipitation relationship was positive while NDVI–temperature showed an inverse trend. During the first of the possible future periods and under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, NDVI and precipitation decreased, and temperatures significantly increased. In addition, the same trends were observed during the second future period; most of these were statistically significant. We conclude that much assessments are valuable and integral components of effective ecosystem planning and decisions.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Air Soil and Water Research
Air Soil and Water Research ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
7.80
自引率
5.30%
发文量
27
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: Air, Soil & Water Research is an open access, peer reviewed international journal covering all areas of research into soil, air and water. The journal looks at each aspect individually, as well as how they interact, with each other and different components of the environment. This includes properties (including physical, chemical, biochemical and biological), analysis, microbiology, chemicals and pollution, consequences for plants and crops, soil hydrology, changes and consequences of change, social issues, and more. The journal welcomes readerships from all fields, but hopes to be particularly profitable to analytical and water chemists and geologists as well as chemical, environmental, petrochemical, water treatment, geophysics and geological engineers. The journal has a multi-disciplinary approach and includes research, results, theory, models, analysis, applications and reviews. Work in lab or field is applicable. Of particular interest are manuscripts relating to environmental concerns. Other possible topics include, but are not limited to: Properties and analysis covering all areas of research into soil, air and water individually as well as how they interact with each other and different components of the environment Soil hydrology and microbiology Changes and consequences of environmental change, chemicals and pollution.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信