US retreat, Indian reform: multilateralism under Trump and Modi

ABSTRACT From early 2017 to early 2021, Donald J. Trump’s disengagement of the United States from international institutions, later amplified by the pressures of the COVID-19 pandemic, produced a weakening of multilateralism at the global level. The overlapping leadership of Narendra Modi diverged on the issue of multilateralism, producing a dynamic of US retreat and redoubled Indian efforts at reform. Despite their common recourse to populism in their respective countries, the United States and India present disparate cases of how populist leaders engage with multilateralism. Trump prioritized national sovereignty and framed international institutions as an imposition on US freedoms, while Modi envisioned international institutions as an avenue through which to remake multilateralism, elevate India’s reputation, and reap domestic political dividends. Trump’s protectionist and inward-looking policy narratives appealed to communities disadvantaged materially and socially by hyperglobalisation and financial crisis, while Modi’s efforts at elevating India’s profile and engagement in multilateral forums resonated with long-standing elite desires for India to enact leadership in global governance. They drew popular support, too. Finally, China’s rising global influence encouraged India to increase its own influence within existing multilateral institutions and develop new avenues of multilateral action, while Trump’s nationalist response was to turn away, and inward.