THE ROLE OF EPIDEMIC MODELLING IN POLICYMAKING AND THE CASES OF SARS AND COVID-19

Over the past two decades, the world has witnessed the onset of three different coronaviruses: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and the current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Each of these has resulted in features that have made it in some ways stronger than the previous one. Predictive epidemic models are widely recognised as one of the most reliable and valuable tools to help policymakers take decisions regarding the management of sanitary crises and have been helping governments by calculating potential consequences and benefits of related containment measures. A comparison of epidemic models that were elaborated on SARS-CoV, which caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and on SARS-CoV-2, which is currently causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will lead to an overview of the potential reasons why the current one has led the world into an ongoing pandemic, while the other two remained relatively delimited. © 2021, University of Defence, Faculty of Military Health Sciences. All rights reserved.