伊朗气候变率和人口增长下的水资源可持续性:系统动力学方法

Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences
G. Layani, M. Bakhshoodeh, M. Zibaei
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引用次数: 2

摘要

水资源可得性的变化是动态的,受人口增长和气候变率等多种因素的影响。了解这些因素对水资源脆弱性的影响对于确保未来水资源的可持续性至关重要。本研究利用系统动力学模型建立了水资源可持续指数,评估了伊朗西南部科萨尔大坝流域不同情景的影响,该流域由于周期性干旱,水资源管理面临严重挑战。根据基线情景,在整个模拟期间,总人口和总用水需求将增加,而供水将减少。因此,水的供需失衡会造成水系统的脆弱性。在这方面,水管理政策应集中于水的需求方,以妥善解决水资源短缺的问题。尽管悲观的气候条件和人口增长使水系统处于更糟糕的供水状况,但需求控制政策可能有助于满足日益增长的水需求。与悲观条件相比,正常和乐观条件下的水可持续性指数有所提高。在乐观天气条件下,控制需水量后可持续性指数最高。因此,政府应该提供一个环境,让人们学会控制他们的日常用水量。同时,我们可以通过保护政策来保护农业部门的水资源。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Water resources sustainability under climate variability and population growth in Iran: A system dynamics approach
The change in availability of water resources has a dynamic behavior and is influenced by many factors such as population growth and climate variability over time.  Understanding the impacts of such factors on water resources vulnerability is essential for ensuring the sustainability of future water resources. In this study, a water resources sustainable index is built using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of different scenarios at the Kowsar dam basin in southwestern Iran where managing water resources is serious challenging due to periodic drought. Based on the baseline scenario, the total population, as well as total water demand, will increase and water supply will decrease throughout the simulated period. Therefore, the imbalanced supply-demand of water can cause the water system vulnerable. In this regard, water management policies should concentrate on the demand side of water to address the problem of water resource shortage in a good manner. Although pessimistic climatic conditions along with population growth put the water system in the worse situation of water availability, where the demand control policies likely help meet the increasing water demand. Compared to the pessimistic conditions, the water sustainability index improves in normal and optimistic conditions. The highest sustainability index was obtained after controlling water demand in optimistic weather condition. Consequently, the government should provide a context in which people learn to control their daily water consumption. Also, it suggests that we can conserve water resources in the agricultural sector with conservation policies.
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来源期刊
caspian journal of environmental sciences
caspian journal of environmental sciences Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
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审稿时长
5 weeks
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