The 2021 municipal elections: rise of the volatile voter or disaffected citizen?

ABSTRACT South Africa's 2021 municipal elections present something of a paradox. The results suggested a highly competitive environment, especially in the urban metropoles, with an unprecedented number of hung councils where no single party was able secure 51 percent. The larger parties suffered losses while smaller parties made gains, suggesting voters had abandoned old political homes for new ones. In contrast, while previous local elections enjoyed modest but steady increases in participation, the 2021 municipal elections also witnessed a sharp decline in voter turnout. Less than a third of eligible voters participated. This paper argues that these paradoxical features are likely to remain a feature of South African electoral politics in the medium-term. While many who participated were likely to be volatile voters, switching their votes to a party different from previous choices, their participation was insufficient to compensate for a higher numbers of abstentions, which are a result of growing political system disaffection with electoral actors. These disaffected citizens are positioned at the periphery of politics and will be difficult to entice back to the polls, leaving the competitive aspect of South Africa's elections reliant on a diminishing number of engaged and unpredictable voters.