用于概率PM2.5估算的耦合野火排放和扩散框架

IF 2.7 3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY
D. Melecio-Vázquez, C. Lautenberger, Ho-Chun Hsieh, Mike F. Amodeo, J. Porter, B. Wilson, Mariah Pope, Evelyn G. Shu, Valentin Waeselynck, E. Kearns
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引用次数: 1

摘要

火灾排放和烟雾传输的准确表示对于当前和未来的野火烟雾预测至关重要。我们为来自第一街基金会野火模型(FSF-WFM)的排放提供了一个灵活的建模框架,为超过2.5µm或PM2.5不健康颗粒物浓度阈值的近地表烟雾状况提供了一张全国地图。美国国家海洋和大气管理局的HYSPLIT模型将模拟火灾产生的烟雾转化为排放物。我们提出了一种从约6500万起单独火灾的模拟中进行采样的策略,以描述“不健康烟雾日”的发生,定义为HYSPLIT的24小时平均PM2.5浓度大于35.4µg/m3。与历史烟雾模拟的比较发现,仅使用模拟火灾的一小部分就可以达成合理的一致。研究发现,1015µg的PM2.5质量释放总量阈值可以有效模拟不健康天数的发生,而不会带来显著的计算负担。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Coupled Wildfire-Emission and Dispersion Framework for Probabilistic PM2.5 Estimation
Accurate representation of fire emissions and smoke transport is crucial for current and future wildfire-smoke projections. We present a flexible modeling framework for emissions sourced from the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to provide a national map for near-surface smoke conditions exceeding the threshold for unhealthy concentrations of particulate matter at or less than 2.5 µm, or PM2.5. Smoke yield from simulated fires is converted to emissions transported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s HYSPLIT model. We present a strategy for sampling from a simulation of ~65 million individual fires, to depict the occurrence of “unhealthy smoke days” defined as 24-h average PM2.5 concentration greater than 35.4 µg/m3 from HYSPLIT. The comparison with historical smoke simulations finds reasonable agreement using only a small subset of simulated fires. The total amount of PM2.5 mass-released threshold of 1015 µg was found to be effective for simulating the occurrence of unhealthy days without significant computational burden.
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来源期刊
Fire-Switzerland
Fire-Switzerland Multiple-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
15.60%
发文量
182
审稿时长
11 weeks
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