Determinants of households' flood risk coping strategies in a high exposure system of the Manafwa catchment and Lake Kyoga Basin

The impact of floods on households in Uganda is becoming increasingly severe. It is often assumed that people who reside in a riverine area have adapted to flood pulses. However, in most cases, household-level risk reduction strategies are inadequate for ensuring a livelihood resilient to floods. The objective of this study was to investigate the determinants of households' decisions on coping strategies in the Manafwa catchment, Eastern Uganda. The study was based on a field survey of 210 households supplemented with focused group discussions (6) and key informant interviews (4) conducted in the Butaleja district in March 2019. The study used the protection motivation theory framework and applied the multivariate probit model. The most common short-term coping strategy was building temporary embankments (37%), whereas afforestation (44%) was the most common long-term solution deployed. The determinants that consistently and significantly influenced the choice of coping strategies adopted were: family size, number of adult males in the family, location of the house within the floodplain and time of residence in the affected area (P > 0.05). For policy purposes, this study recommends that the relevant stakeholder interventions should consider these determinants, in order to enhance the adaptive capacity of rural households to flooding.