{"title":"利用气温预测亚洲鲤鱼成熟年龄","authors":"Madison E. Brook, Kim Cuddington, Marten A. Koops","doi":"10.1111/eff.12702","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Asian carp (bighead carp, <i>Hypophthalmichthys nobilis</i>; grass carp, <i>Ctenopharyngodon idella</i> and silver carp, <i>H. molitrix</i>) are a group of invasive species that are predicted to cause ecological effects if they invade the Great Lakes basin. Although Asian carp age at maturity is known to be an important factor in the risk of establishing a population, there is relatively little maturity data for North America. We found that air temperature can be used to predict the age at maturity of Asian carp. Nonlinear regressions using mean annual air temperature and annual degree days to predict age at maturity explain 60% and 62% of the variation respectively. These models predict that maturation is possible in locations that were previously excluded from Asian carp spawning range based on data from the Amur River. As expected, we find faster maturation in more southern areas of North America, although there are relatively large errors predicting age at maturity in the Mississippi River population. We conclude that due to the effect of faster maturation on population growth rates, southern Great Lakes locations (e.g. Lake Erie) may be at greater risk of faster population establishment.</p>","PeriodicalId":11422,"journal":{"name":"Ecology of Freshwater Fish","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eff.12702","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the age at maturity of Asian carp using air temperature\",\"authors\":\"Madison E. Brook, Kim Cuddington, Marten A. Koops\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/eff.12702\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Asian carp (bighead carp, <i>Hypophthalmichthys nobilis</i>; grass carp, <i>Ctenopharyngodon idella</i> and silver carp, <i>H. molitrix</i>) are a group of invasive species that are predicted to cause ecological effects if they invade the Great Lakes basin. Although Asian carp age at maturity is known to be an important factor in the risk of establishing a population, there is relatively little maturity data for North America. We found that air temperature can be used to predict the age at maturity of Asian carp. Nonlinear regressions using mean annual air temperature and annual degree days to predict age at maturity explain 60% and 62% of the variation respectively. These models predict that maturation is possible in locations that were previously excluded from Asian carp spawning range based on data from the Amur River. As expected, we find faster maturation in more southern areas of North America, although there are relatively large errors predicting age at maturity in the Mississippi River population. We conclude that due to the effect of faster maturation on population growth rates, southern Great Lakes locations (e.g. Lake Erie) may be at greater risk of faster population establishment.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11422,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ecology of Freshwater Fish\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-02-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/eff.12702\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ecology of Freshwater Fish\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eff.12702\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"FISHERIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecology of Freshwater Fish","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eff.12702","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"FISHERIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the age at maturity of Asian carp using air temperature
Asian carp (bighead carp, Hypophthalmichthys nobilis; grass carp, Ctenopharyngodon idella and silver carp, H. molitrix) are a group of invasive species that are predicted to cause ecological effects if they invade the Great Lakes basin. Although Asian carp age at maturity is known to be an important factor in the risk of establishing a population, there is relatively little maturity data for North America. We found that air temperature can be used to predict the age at maturity of Asian carp. Nonlinear regressions using mean annual air temperature and annual degree days to predict age at maturity explain 60% and 62% of the variation respectively. These models predict that maturation is possible in locations that were previously excluded from Asian carp spawning range based on data from the Amur River. As expected, we find faster maturation in more southern areas of North America, although there are relatively large errors predicting age at maturity in the Mississippi River population. We conclude that due to the effect of faster maturation on population growth rates, southern Great Lakes locations (e.g. Lake Erie) may be at greater risk of faster population establishment.
期刊介绍:
Ecology of Freshwater Fish publishes original contributions on all aspects of fish ecology in freshwater environments, including lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and streams. Manuscripts involving ecologically-oriented studies of behavior, conservation, development, genetics, life history, physiology, and host-parasite interactions are welcomed. Studies involving population ecology and community ecology are also of interest, as are evolutionary approaches including studies of population biology, evolutionary ecology, behavioral ecology, and historical ecology. Papers addressing the life stages of anadromous and catadromous species in estuaries and inshore coastal zones are considered if they contribute to the general understanding of freshwater fish ecology. Theoretical and modeling studies are suitable if they generate testable hypotheses, as are those with implications for fisheries. Manuscripts presenting analyses of published data are considered if they produce novel conclusions or syntheses. The journal publishes articles, fresh perspectives, and reviews and, occasionally, the proceedings of conferences and symposia.