Race, Perceived Criminality and Housing Choice Voucher Recipients: Do Black Voucher Recipients’ Moves to the Suburbs Increase Crime Rates?

Public attention has focused on especially Black Housing Choice Voucher Recipients’ (HCVRs) residential mobility and whether and to what extent crime is influenced as a result. This paper adds to the growing empirical literature on this question by focusing on the race of HCVRs and examining whether changes in Black HCVRs presence in suburban areas over time is followed by changes in crime rates among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country. Multiple data sources are used to examine this question including data on voucher holders from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Picture of Subsidized Housing, on crime from the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Offenses Known and Cleared by Arrest compiled by the FBI, and on important demographic data from the Census Bureau. First difference regression methods as well as lead and lag dependent (and independent) variable analysis, among other methods, are used to assess whether Black HCVRs influence crime in suburban areas. The results of the analysis indicate no support for the Black HCVRs – suburban crime hypothesis, consistent with previous research. The evidence indicates positive, statistically significant relationships between White HCVRs and suburban crime. However, lead and lag analysis suggests the relationship is not causal. If anything, the evidence points to White HCVRs moving to suburban areas where crime is increasing. Fears of increased crime resulting from increased presence of HCVRs are therefore not well supported by the studies’ results, and should allay any concerns about unintended crime costs of the HCV program.