Moving towards repolarisation? The population trajectories of medium-sized towns in Lower Lombardy, Italy (2010‒2020)

Abstract Although medium-sized towns are key components in the polycentric structuring of regional spaces, their evolutionary pathways are less clear than those of cities. This paper considers a set of four medium-sized towns with provincial capital status located in the southern zone of Lombardy, on the fringes of a densely urbanised area dominated by Milan. The population trajectories of these towns and their agglomerations (firstand second-belt municipalities) are investigated in the decade from 2010 to 2020, with a descriptive analysis. The research resulted in three main findings: 1) even in a challenging economic climate, the population trends of the towns considered were affected by proximity to the vibrant Milan metropolitan area; 2) all the towns have gone down the route of reurbanisation, but the suburbanisation process is still ongoing and very intense, especially for the Italian population; 3) there are gaps between cores and belts in terms of population distribution by age group and land take intensity, resulting in differing drives for population concentration or deconcentration. Highlights for public administration, management and planning: • Medium-sized towns that are more able to “work together as part of a network” enjoy greater population vitality. • Medium-sized towns are not a unitary group: even in an area featuring similar structural characteristics, their evolutionary dynamics differ, calling for place-based policies. • A drive for population deconcentration is under way in agglomerations linked to medium-sized towns, powered by certain population groups, which could adversely affect the quest for a sustainable development model.