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引用次数: 0
摘要
迈克尔·伍德福德(Michael Woodford)的《规划视野有限时的货币政策分析》(Monetary Policy Analysis When Planning Horizons Are Finite)符合一篇快速增长的文献,该文献试图在宏观经济模型中引入有限理性的形式。有限理性可以通过多种方式引入,这取决于我们如何描述代理处理信息、形成预测和计算最优计划的有限能力。我正在讨论的这篇论文通过给代理人一个有限的规划范围来捕捉有限理性,并深入探讨这种建模假设的各种后果。本文通过将宏观文献与人工智能领域的现有工作联系起来,为这项工作提供了很好的动机。在这次讨论中,我想指出两点,一点是关于一般均衡效应的作用,另一点是有限寿命和有限规划范围之间的区别。有一个维度的有限理性以不同的形式出现在各种模型中:主体通过其环境中的一般均衡效应进行思考的能力有限。我的第一点是,这种有限的一般均衡思维能力在本文中也起着重要作用。为了说明这一点,让我举一个受Farhi和Werning(2017)启发的“前向引导谜题”(Del Negro、Giannoni和Patterson,2012)的简单例子。以一个具有标准时间可分离偏好的无限寿命消费者为例,他获得了确定的劳动力收入流{Yt},并有权获得支付实际利率rt的单一债券。该消费者的最佳行为可以从欧拉方程中得出
“Monetary Policy Analysis When Planning Horizons Are Finite” byMichael Woodford fits in a fast-growing literature that attempts to introduce forms of bounded rationality in macroeconomic models. Bounded rationality can be introduced in a variety ofways, depending on howwe describe the agents’ limited ability to process information, to form forecasts, and to compute optimal plans. The paper I am discussing captures bounded rationality by giving agents a finite planning horizon and exploring in depth a variety of consequences of this modeling assumption. The paper provides a nice motivation for the exercise by connecting the macro literature to existing work in artificial intelligence. In this discussion I want tomake two points, one on the role of general equilibrium effects and one on difference between finite lives and finite planning horizons. There is one dimension of bounded rationality that appears in different forms in a variety of models: the limited capacity of agents to think through general equilibrium effects in their environment. My first point is that this limited capacity for general equilibrium thinking also plays an important role in this paper. To make this point, let me use a simple example of the “forward guidance puzzle” (Del Negro, Giannoni, and Patterson 2012), inspired by Farhi and Werning (2017). Take an infinitely lived consumer, with standard time-separable preferences, who receives a deterministic stream of labor income {Yt} and has access to a single bond that pays the real interest rate rt. The optimal behavior of this consumer can be derived from the Euler equation
期刊介绍:
The Nber Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields.