影响比例偏差的因素

IF 2.3 Q3 MANAGEMENT
David Bourdin , Rudolf Vetschera
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引用次数: 5

摘要

比率偏差指的是个体倾向于判断以大数之比表示的概率比以小数之比表示的同等甚至更高的概率更有可能。例如,当提供9/100中奖机会的彩票比提供1/10中奖机会的彩票更受欢迎时,就会出现比率偏差效应。虽然以往的实证研究已经发现了比例偏差的证据,但这种效应发生的确切条件仍然不清楚,并且在区分比例偏差与其他类似效应方面缺乏严谨性。在这篇文章中,除了提供一个全面和综合的文献综述,我们提出了一个实验的结果,我们通过比较偏向于低数量和高数量的选择的偏差,以及允许冷漠来扩展先前对比例偏差的研究。结果表明,支持高数量替代方案的系统性偏差确实存在,但必须清楚地将比例偏差与表明冷漠的一般趋势区分开来。关于问题和决策者的特征,我们发现所涉及的概率水平(比例偏差在低概率情况下更常见)和性别(偏差在女性受试者中更常见)的显著影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Factors influencing the ratio bias

The ratio bias refers to the tendency of individuals to judge probabilities expressed as ratios of large numbers as more likely than equivalent or even higher probabilities expressed as a ratio of small numbers. For example, the ratio bias effect occurs when a lottery offering a 9/100 chance of winning is preferred over a lottery that offers a 1/10 chance of winning. Although previous empirical research has found evidence for the ratio bias, the exact conditions under which this effect occurs are still unclear and there is a lack of rigor in distinguishing the ratio bias from other similar effects. In this article, besides providing a comprehensive and integrative literature review, we present the results of an experiment in which we extend previous research on the ratio bias by comparing deviations both in favor of low- and high-number alternatives, as well as allowing for indifference. Results indicate that a systematic deviation in favor of high-number alternatives does exist, but that the ratio bias must be clearly distinguished from a general tendency to indicate indifference. Concerning characteristics of the problem and the decision maker, we find significant influences of probability levels involved (the ratio bias occurs more frequently for low probabilities), and of gender (the bias occurs more often among female subjects).

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
15
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