美国页岩油产量和趋势估计:预测Hubbert模型

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13169

Douglas B. Reynolds

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引用次数: 0

摘要

有关能源的稀缺性和增长分析包括预测不可再生资源的开采率，同时考虑到技术进步。其中一种机制，即摩尔（1965 年）技术改进定律，包括经验增强、成本稳步降低。另外，综合技术变革指的是不可预见的创新突破。这些趋势与美国下 48 个毗连州页岩油开采的哈伯特曲线（1956 年，1962 年）有关。分析了价格效应、钻井平台以及价格与钻井平台之间的关系。结果表明，我们正处于美国页岩油的高峰期，并可能经历全面衰退。这意味着卡顿（1982 年）的 "繁荣时代 "和 "承载能力 "下降。

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U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model

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U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model

Scarcity and growth analyses about energy include forecasting extraction rates of non-renewable resources while taking into account technological progression. One mechanism, Moore's (1965) Law of technological improvement, encompasses experience enhanced steady cost reductions. Alternatively, synthesis technological change refers to unforeseen innovative breakthroughs. These trends relate to the Hubbert (1956, 1962) Curve of U.S shale oil extraction in the U.S. Lower 48 contiguous states. Price effects, drilling rigs and the price-to-drilling rig relationship are analyzed. Results show we are at peak U.S. shale oil, and could experience comprehensive decline. This implies Catton's (1982) “Age of Exuberance,” and “Carrying Capacity” drawdown.

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来源期刊

Economic Inquiry ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published since 1962, (formerly Western Economic Journal), EI is widely regarded as one of the top scholarly journals in its field. Besides containing research on all economics topic areas, a principal objective is to make each article understandable to economists who are not necessarily specialists in the article topic area. Nine Nobel laureates are among EI long list of prestigious authors.