美国葡萄酒在线季节性需求的时间序列预测模型以及新冠肺炎导致的供应渠道潜在中断

IF 2.3 Q1 AGRONOMY
F. Huq, Vernon Jones, D. Hensler
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的本研究基于销售增长轨迹、季节性和消费者转向在线平台造成的中断,对美国葡萄酒行业分销渠道的变化进行了统计调查。本文的目的是设计一个在葡萄酒行业之外具有普遍适用性的模型。设计/方法/方法该研究使用基于回归的时间序列数据加性分解来预测数字分销渠道的市场份额轨迹。该研究使用2007年至2020年(包括2020年)的时间序列数据开发了一个统计预测模型,这些数据来源于《美国年度葡萄酒报告》和烟酒枪炮管理局数据库。调查结果显示,葡萄酒销售通过在线分销渠道的增长轨迹具有可预测的季节性。消费者转换行为的破坏性影响表明,由于需求的增加和转换的加速,销售额稳步增长。尽管如此,该模型显示,实体采购仍将保持强劲,并将继续占葡萄酒销售的大部分。新冠肺炎已经导致在线销售额的阶跃函数增加,但在危机平息后,这种情况应该会缓和,可以进一步测试。独创性/价值这项研究是为一个实体销售额正在增长的行业开发模型的独创性研究,该行业预计将保持强劲,同时仍有可识别的向在线销售的转变。葡萄酒行业呈现出加速转换行为的典型案例,在这种情况下,店内购买仍有强大的特许经营权。该模型应普遍适用于葡萄酒行业以外的分销渠道,在这些渠道中,稳定增长、显著的季节性和颠覆性的消费者转变是显而易见的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A time series projection model of online seasonal demand for American wine and potential disruption in the supply channels due to COVID-19
Purpose This study statistically examines the shifting distribution channels in the American wine industry based on the growth trajectory of sales, seasonality and disruption due to consumers switching to online platforms. The purpose of this paper is to design a model that will have general applicability beyond the wine industry. Design/methodology/approach The research uses regression-based additive decomposition of time series data to predict the trajectory of the market share for the digital distribution channel. The study develops a statistical prediction model using time series data between 2007 and 2020, inclusive, sourced from US Annual Wine Reports and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms databases. Findings The results show an increasing trajectory of wine sales through the online distribution channel with predictable seasonality. The disruptive effects of consumer switching behavior point to a steady increase in sales due both to increasing demand and accelerating switching. Nevertheless, the model shows that bricks and mortar purchases will remain strong and continue to account for the bulk of wine sales. COVID-19 has caused a step function increase in online sales but this should moderate after the crisis subsides and can be tested further. Originality/value This study is original in developing a model for an industry where bricks and mortar sales are growing and are expected to remain strong while there is still identifiable switching to online sales. The wine industry presents a classic case of accelerating switching behavior where there is still a strong franchise for in-store purchases. The model should have general applicability to distribution channels beyond the wine industry where steady growth, marked seasonality and disruptive consumer switching are in evidence.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
11.10%
发文量
23
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