COVID-19对美国和德克萨斯州经济的影响:一般均衡方法

IF 1.5 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Frontiers of Economics in China Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI:10.54605/fec20210405

Lirong Liu, S. Shwiff, S. Shwiff, Maryfrances Miller

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文使用可计算的一般均衡模型REMI PI+考察了COVID-19对美国和德克萨斯州经济的影响。我们根据来自不同来源的经济预测，包括密歇根大学的定量经济学研究研讨会、国际货币基金组织和世界银行，考虑了三种情景。我们报告称，到2020年，德克萨斯州的GDP损失为1.06亿美元(下降6%)，失业人数为120万人(下降6.6%)。在全国范围内，GDP损失为9960亿美元(下降5%)，同年失业人数为1150万人(5.5%)。到2026年，德州的GDP损失总额将在3.78亿美元到6.29亿美元之间。根据模型的假设，2021年德克萨斯州的估计失业率在5%到7.7%之间。CGE结果的粒度允许检查受影响最大和最小的行业。医疗保健和社会援助、建筑、住宿和食品服务部门的工作岗位流失最多，而州和地方政府以及农场的工作岗位可能会在2020年增加。这些见解将我们的工作与当前大多数影响研究区分开来。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas Economy: A General Equilibrium Approach

This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on the US and Texas economy using a computable general equilibrium model, REMI PI+. We consider three scenarios based on economic forecasts from various sources, including the University of Michigan’s RSQE (Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics), IMF, and the Wi orld Bank. We report a GDP loss of $106 million (a 6% decline) with 1.2 million jobs lost (6.6%) in Texas in 2020. At the national level, GDP loss is $996 billion (a 5% decline) with 11.5 million jobs lost (5.5%) in the same year. By 2026, the aggregate total GDP loss in Texas ranges from $378 to $629 million. The estimated unemployment rate in Texas in 2021 ranges from 5% to 7.7%, depending on modeling assumptions. The granularity of the CGE results allow examination of the most and least impacted industries. Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, and Accommodation and Food Services incur the most job loss while State and Local Government and Farm will likely see an increase in jobs for 2020. These insights separate our work from most current impact studies.

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来源期刊

Frontiers of Economics in China ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

373

期刊介绍： Frontiers of Economics in China seeks to provide a forum for a broad blend of peer-reviewed academic papers of economics in order to promote communication and exchanges between economists in China and abroad. It will reflect the enormous advances that are currently being made in China in the field of economy and society. In addition, this journal also bears the mission of introducing the academic achievements on Chinese economics research to the world.