{"title":"巴西冰事件:评估未来的预期","authors":"P. Barrette, K. Lindenschmidt","doi":"10.2166/nh.2023.008","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n This article addresses the question: What is expected from frazil ice activity in rivers, taking into account the changing climate? It begins with an overview of what frazil ice is and what is required for the occurrence of frazil ice events, namely a supercooled water column. Methodologies to anticipate frazil ice events in the short term are based on air temperature and water discharge, underlining the significance of these two parameters for any predictive methods. Longer-term approaches, calibrated against past events (hindcasting), are used to anticipate frazil ice activity into the future, with indicators such as frazil ice risk, water temperature and frazil volume. Any of these approaches could conceivably be applied to frazil-prone river stretches. To assess climate impact, each location should be treated separately. River ice dynamics can lead to the formation of a hanging dam, a frequent outcome of frazil ice generation in the early winter, causing flow restriction. Flood modeling and forecasting capabilities have been developed and implemented for operational use. More frequent mid-winter breakups are expected to extend the occurrence of frazil ice events into the winter months – the prediction of these will require climate model output to adequately capture month-to-month variability.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future\",\"authors\":\"P. Barrette, K. Lindenschmidt\",\"doi\":\"10.2166/nh.2023.008\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n This article addresses the question: What is expected from frazil ice activity in rivers, taking into account the changing climate? It begins with an overview of what frazil ice is and what is required for the occurrence of frazil ice events, namely a supercooled water column. Methodologies to anticipate frazil ice events in the short term are based on air temperature and water discharge, underlining the significance of these two parameters for any predictive methods. Longer-term approaches, calibrated against past events (hindcasting), are used to anticipate frazil ice activity into the future, with indicators such as frazil ice risk, water temperature and frazil volume. Any of these approaches could conceivably be applied to frazil-prone river stretches. To assess climate impact, each location should be treated separately. River ice dynamics can lead to the formation of a hanging dam, a frequent outcome of frazil ice generation in the early winter, causing flow restriction. Flood modeling and forecasting capabilities have been developed and implemented for operational use. More frequent mid-winter breakups are expected to extend the occurrence of frazil ice events into the winter months – the prediction of these will require climate model output to adequately capture month-to-month variability.\",\"PeriodicalId\":55040,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.008\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Environmental Science\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.008","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future
This article addresses the question: What is expected from frazil ice activity in rivers, taking into account the changing climate? It begins with an overview of what frazil ice is and what is required for the occurrence of frazil ice events, namely a supercooled water column. Methodologies to anticipate frazil ice events in the short term are based on air temperature and water discharge, underlining the significance of these two parameters for any predictive methods. Longer-term approaches, calibrated against past events (hindcasting), are used to anticipate frazil ice activity into the future, with indicators such as frazil ice risk, water temperature and frazil volume. Any of these approaches could conceivably be applied to frazil-prone river stretches. To assess climate impact, each location should be treated separately. River ice dynamics can lead to the formation of a hanging dam, a frequent outcome of frazil ice generation in the early winter, causing flow restriction. Flood modeling and forecasting capabilities have been developed and implemented for operational use. More frequent mid-winter breakups are expected to extend the occurrence of frazil ice events into the winter months – the prediction of these will require climate model output to adequately capture month-to-month variability.
期刊介绍:
Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.