The contribution of livestock to climate change mitigation: a perspective from a low-income country

Abstract The livestock sector in low- and middle-income countries could contribute significantly to reduce the rate of growth and/or the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required to achieve the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Yet, the sector is also expected to contribute to food and income security in these countries. Using an extensive dataset on the Ethiopian livestock sector, we assessed the potential of selected interventions to increase supply of animal source protein (ASP) and reduce GHG emissions intensity or absolute emissions at national level. The business as usual (BAU) scenario was modelled by extrapolating the historical trends observed during the base years (i.e. 2010 – 2020) to the period between 2021 and 2030. Four scenarios were modelled including structural changes in cattle herd (S1) and chicken flock (S3) composition, increased milk yields of dairy cattle (S2), and a combination of all strategies (S4). We found that the total ASP produced and supplied per capita, as well as total GHG emissions increased between 2021 and 2030 across all scenarios while emission intensities per unit ASP produced decreased. However, by 2030, the total GHG emissions in S1 (i.e. 146.7 MtCO2e) were lower than in the BAU scenario (i.e. 149.0 MtCO2e) while the total ASP supplied per capita was higher in the former (i.e. 6.84 kg) than the latter (i.e. 6.24 kg). These findings suggest that structural changes at herd level could reduce total GHG emissions and concomitantly increase ASP supply. Therefore, structural transformation could be a highly relevant policy option for low- and middle- income countries, where the livestock sector must address multiple goals including food and income security, and global climate commitments.