Blind shots: non-natural mortality counteracts conservation efforts of a threatened waterbird

Waterbirds are particularly affected by the high hunting pressure they face in many regions, which in some cases is compromising conservation actions for threatened species. The marbled teal Marmaronetta angustirostris is one of the most endangered waterbirds in Europe. In order to restore its population, several conservation actions have recently been undertaken, including a population reinforcement programme in Spain using captive-bred birds. With the aim of assessing the success of the reinforcement programme to establish a long-term self-sustaining population, we identified mortality causes of marbled teal, evaluated the survival of individual birds of the reinforcement programme and estimated the viability of the population under different management scenarios. We used data from wild and captive-bred individuals tracked by GPS since 2018 (n = 42) and from a mark–recapture programme initiated in 2015 (n = 297). We recovered 15 dead birds or transmitters: 20% died of natural causes, 60% of non-natural causes (including all anthropic causes) and 20% of unknown causes. Furthermore, the GPS tags of 24 birds unexpectedly stopped transmitting without any indication of malfunction, and for 66.7% of these disappeared birds, the cessation was suspected to be caused by illegal shooting. Survival during the hunting season was higher for males (31.3%) than for females (12.5%), and for the wild (50%) than for the captive-bred birds (9.4%), probably due to differences in migration patterns to North Africa. Population viability models revealed that maintaining the breeding population at the current mortality rates is only possible with a permanent release programme of captive-bred individuals, and that in order to establish a self-sustaining population, non-natural mortality would have to be reduced by at least 40%. We recommend management measures to reduce marbled teal mortality, such as limiting legal hunting to hours with clear visibility, prosecuting illegal shootings, controlling exotic predators and improving water management to reduce disease outbreaks. Some improvements can be implemented in captive-breeding programmes, such as earlier release times and incorporating anti-predator training.