莫桑比克经济增长与带薪工作增长分析

H. Maduku, M. Zerihun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的中心目标是了解莫桑比克经济增长对创造就业(有偿工作)的贡献。在此背景下,该国经历了十年的显著经济增长和经济发展,但贫困和失业仍然是一个问题。没有为人民特别是穷人创造机会的经济增长是不可取的,这种情况被称为纯粹的经济增长和发展。尽管莫桑比克经济出现了令人称道的增长,但估计仍有70%的劳动力在农业部门工作,另一方面,非正规经济预计约占经济的80%。为了实现研究的中心目标,作者估计了自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)。我们的主要发现是,莫桑比克的经济增长确实对有薪和受薪工人(WASW)的增长产生了积极影响,而且这种关系在统计上是显著的。我们还发现,基础设施投资的增长对有偿工作有积极贡献。最后,我们发现经济中的总增加值对有偿工作产生了负面影响。我们的研究结果提出的政策建议是,负责任的当局需要着手大规模的基础设施投资,因为我们发现,基础设施的增长对有薪工作增长和经济增长具有积极的拉动作用,这也有助于进一步创造就业机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysing Economic Growth on Paid Work Growth in Mozambique
The central objective of this paper was to understand the contribution of economic growth on job creation (paid work) in Mozambique. This comes at a background when the country experienced a decade of significant economic growth and economic development, but poverty and unemployment remain a problem. The growth of an economy without creating opportunities for the population and especially the poor is undesirable and such situations are described as exclusive economic growth and development. Despite commendable economic growth episodes, an estimated 70% of the Mozambican labour force still work in the agriculture sector and on the other side, the informal economy is projected at around 80% of the economy. To achieve the central objective of the study, the authors estimated the Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL). Our key findings were that economic growth in Mozambique does have a positive impact on growth of waged and salaried workers (WASW) and the relationship is statistically significant. We also found that growth in infrastructure investment contributes positively to paid work. Lastly, we found that gross value added in the economy negatively impacts paid work. Policy recommendations arising from our findings are that responsible authorities need to embark on massive infrastructure investment since it was found that its growth has positive traction of waged and salaried work growth and economic growth which also contribute to further job creation.
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