不同地区和不同气候国家的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型疾病的潜伏期、关键免疫阈值和其他一些预测因素

Marwan Al-Raeei
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引用次数: 3

摘要

我们估计了不同国家的潜伏期值和其他预测因子,这些国家位于地球不同的地理位置,每个国家都有一定的气候。这些国家包括美国、俄罗斯、英国、巴西、西班牙、巴林、埃及、伊朗、塞浦路斯、印度、法国和阿拉伯叙利亚共和国。对于预测预测值的估计,我们使用SEIR流行病模型和龙格-库塔模拟方法。这些估计是根据在上述国家收集的数据在2021年初之前在这些国家进行的。我们发现SARS-CoV-2的潜伏期值介于2.5天(返回巴林)和10天(返回中东一些国家)之间。此外,我们发现,在不同的地理位置国家,这段时间的平均值约为6.5天。此外,我们发现SARS-CoV-2临界免疫阈值、SARS-CoV-2基本繁殖数和SARS-CoV-2稳态种群的平均值分别为0.5、2.3和0.5。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The incubation periods, the critical immunisation threshold and some other predictors of SARS-CoV-2 disease for different location and different climate countries
We estimate the incubation period values and other forecasting predictors of SARS-CoV-2 for different countries located in different geographical locations of the earth and each one has a certain climate. The considered countries are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Spain, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Cyprus, India, France, and the Syrian Arab Republic. For estimating of the forecasting predictors values, we use the SEIR epidemic model and Runge-Kutta simulation method. The estimations are done up to the beginning of 2021 in aforementioned countries based on the collected data in these countries. We find that the incubation period values of SARS-CoV-2 are located between 2.5 days which returns to Bahrain and 10 days which returns to some countries in middle east. Also, we find that the average value of this period is about 6.5 days for the different location countries. Besides, we find that the average values of SARS-CoV-2 critical immunisation threshold, SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number and SARS-CoV-2 steady state population are 0.5, 2.3 and 0.5 respectively.
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