用于COVID-19预测的霍尔特-温特斯白盒模型

Q3 Decision Sciences

International Journal of Management and Decision Making Pub Date : 2020-08-01 DOI:10.1504/ijmdm.2021.10034422

S. Subanar, C. R. Indrati, Tatiana Gherman, S. Hansun, V. Charles

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引用次数: 12

摘要

2020年是值得纪念的一年，新型冠状病毒病在全球大规模传播，成为大流行。本文分析和预测了迄今为止确诊病例数最多的前十大国家和上个月增长百分比最高的前十大国家的COVID-19病例未来趋势。由于最近的许多研究都提出COVID-19模式遵循指数分布，因此我们使用对Holt-Winters的加性方法进行调整的方法作为白盒模型。分析发现，近期大部分国家确诊病例仍呈上升趋势。除了疫苗和药物开发之外，毫无疑问，要应对COVID-19的传播，避免或遏制下一波疫情，还需要保持警惕、政府战略行动、公众意识和保持社会距离等措施。

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A tuned Holt-Winters white-box model for COVID-19 prediction

The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters' additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid or curb the next wave of the outbreak.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Management and Decision Making Decision Sciences-Decision Sciences (all)

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The general themes of the IJMDM seek to develop our understanding of organisational decision making and the technology used to support the decision process. A particular purpose is to consider management processes in international and cross-cultural contexts and to secure international inputs and comparisons. The IJMDM aims to provide a new venue for high quality papers focusing on the analytical and empirical study of management processes in private and public sector organisations - including cases and action research.