The Variability in Risk Assessment Between Flight Crew

ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this research was to investigate the assessment of situational risk among commercial flight crew, and examine the accuracy with which factors such as experience (i.e., rank, flight hours, license type, recency) and age predict accurate situational risk assessment. Background: Accurate risk assessment by flight crew is critical for safe and efficient air transport operation. Method: The study contained 2 stages. In Stage 1, 6 subject-matter experts rated and categorized the risks involved in 9 aviation-related scenarios, resulting in 3 distinct scenarios, 1 for each of the following risk points: low, medium, and high. In Stage 2, 270 commercial pilots rated the risk in each of the 3 scenarios. Results: The results revealed a consistent overestimation of risk in the low- and medium-risk scenarios. In the medium-risk scenario, pilots who were younger and had fewer flight hours rated the risk consistent with the subject-matter experts. The more experienced and older pilots, however, were more conservative in their risk estimates. Conclusion: Risk assessment varies among flight crew, with the highest variability in situations involving low or medium levels of risk. Demographic variables such as flight experience (i.e., hours) and age were related, in part with accuracy of risk assessment.