{"title":"全球主要城市的资本流动和写字楼市场","authors":"Olawumi Fadeyi, S. McGreal, M. McCord, J. Berry","doi":"10.1108/jpif-02-2020-0023","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"PurposeOffice markets and particularly international financial centres over the past decade have experienced rapid financialisation, developments and indeed changes in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) landscape. Importantly, the volume and types of international capital flows have witnessed more foreign actors and vehicles entering into the investment landscape with the concentration of investment intensifying within key financial centres. This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. The cointegration and causality analysis indicate that cross-border real estate investment flows in these markets (and financial centres) show both long- and short-run relationships and suggest that the London office market remains more distinct and the most reliant on international capital flows with a wider geographical spread of investment activities and investor types. In the case of New York and Tokyo, these markets appear to be driven by more domestic investment activity and capital seemingly due to subtle factors pertaining to investor home bias, risk aversion and diversification strategies between the markets in the aftermath of the GFC.Originality/valueGiven the importance of the CBD offices in London, New York and Tokyo as an asset class for institutional investors, this paper provides some insights as to their level of connection and the interaction of the international capital flows into these three major cities.","PeriodicalId":46429,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Property Investment & Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2020-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jpif-02-2020-0023","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Capital flows and office markets in major global cities\",\"authors\":\"Olawumi Fadeyi, S. 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This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. 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引用次数: 4
摘要
办公楼市场,尤其是国际金融中心,在过去十年中经历了快速的金融化、发展和后全球金融危机(GFC)格局的变化。重要的是,国际资本流动的数量和类型表明,更多的外国行动者和工具进入了投资领域,主要金融中心内的投资日益集中。本文研究了2007年至2017年间伦敦、纽约和东京写字楼市场的国际房地产资本流动的相互作用。设计/方法/方法使用Real Capital Analytics (RCA)数据,包括2007年至2017年期间超过5,700笔办公物业交易,相当于5630亿美元,使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法评估直接流入伦敦、纽约和东京办公市场的全球资本。此外,格兰杰因果检验检验,以分析国际房地产资本流入这三个主要写字楼市场的短期相互作用。通过评估这三个中央商务区(CBD)写字楼市场内部与外部投资的相关性,市场动态的差异得到了突出。伦敦写字楼市场高度依赖国际流动和美国,美国是全球舞台上最重要的跨境投资来源。协整和因果分析表明,这些市场(和金融中心)的跨境房地产投资流动显示出长期和短期关系,并表明伦敦写字楼市场仍然更加独特,最依赖国际资本流动,投资活动和投资者类型的地理分布更广。在纽约和东京的情况下,这些市场似乎是由更多的国内投资活动和资本驱动的,这似乎是由于全球金融危机后与投资者的本土偏好、风险厌恶和市场之间的多样化策略有关的微妙因素。原创性/价值鉴于伦敦、纽约和东京的CBD办公室作为机构投资者的资产类别的重要性,本文提供了一些关于它们的联系程度和国际资本流入这三个主要城市的互动的见解。
Capital flows and office markets in major global cities
PurposeOffice markets and particularly international financial centres over the past decade have experienced rapid financialisation, developments and indeed changes in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) landscape. Importantly, the volume and types of international capital flows have witnessed more foreign actors and vehicles entering into the investment landscape with the concentration of investment intensifying within key financial centres. This paper examines the interaction of international real estate capital flows in the London, New York and Tokyo office markets between 2007 and 2017.Design/methodology/approachUsing Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data comprising over 5,700 office property transactions equating to $563bn between 2007 and 2017, the direct global capital flows into the London, New York and Tokyo office markets are assessed using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Further, Granger causality tests are examined to analyse the short-run interaction of international real estate capital flows into these three major office markets.FindingsBy assessing the relativity of internal to external investments in these three central business district (CBD) office markets, differences in market dynamics are highlighted. The London office market is shown to be highly dependent on international flows and the USA, the foremost source of cross-border investment on the global stage. The cointegration and causality analysis indicate that cross-border real estate investment flows in these markets (and financial centres) show both long- and short-run relationships and suggest that the London office market remains more distinct and the most reliant on international capital flows with a wider geographical spread of investment activities and investor types. In the case of New York and Tokyo, these markets appear to be driven by more domestic investment activity and capital seemingly due to subtle factors pertaining to investor home bias, risk aversion and diversification strategies between the markets in the aftermath of the GFC.Originality/valueGiven the importance of the CBD offices in London, New York and Tokyo as an asset class for institutional investors, this paper provides some insights as to their level of connection and the interaction of the international capital flows into these three major cities.
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