A Reappraisal of Electricity Subsidies and Household Welfare in Brunei Darussalam

Abstract:This paper reassesses the impact of the residential electricity tariff reform implemented in 2012 on the distributional equity and fiscal cost of electricity subsidies in Brunei. Using data from the latest Household Expenditure Survey (HES) conducted in 2015/16, the study estimates that the poorest 20 per cent of households receive 18 per cent of total electricity subsidies, which is considerably larger than the previously estimated share of 11 per cent based on the 2010/11 HES data. This, in part, reflects behavioural changes induced by the reform to an increasing block tariff (IBT), as wealthier households reduce their electricity usage due to higher per-unit costs at higher levels of consumption while poorer households increase their usage as the tariff cost is cheaper in the first consumption block. Concomitantly, the fiscal cost of electricity subsidies has declined by more than 20 per cent following the tariff change. Yet, simulations of alternative reform scenarios show that there are substantial welfare gains and cost savings from refining the IBT structure, using a volume-differentiated tariff, or providing targeted cash transfers. The overarching message is that improving the design of subsidy schemes or introducing targeted transfers can achieve distributional equity and fiscal objectives more efficiently than existing electricity subsidies.