2021-2022年的准通胀:一个错误分析和更糟糕应对的案例

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI:10.4337/roke.2023.02.04

J. Galbraith

{"title":"2021-2022年的准通胀:一个错误分析和更糟糕应对的案例","authors":"J. Galbraith","doi":"10.4337/roke.2023.02.04","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The theoretical construct of pure inflation is of no use in understanding the price events of 2021 and 2022 in the United States. By extension, the conventional tools of the Phillips Curve, NAIRU, potential output and money–supply growth are equally useless. By further extension, the ‘anti-inflation’ policies of the Federal Reserve have acted on asset markets (which are not part of theoretical inflation) while taking credit for the end to a price process in produced goods that was transitory in any event. The Federal Reserve is now stuck in a posture guaranteed to destabilize economic activity sooner or later, while the economy remains vulnerable to additional potential price shocks emanating from the same sources already seen, including real resources, supply chains, wars, pandemics and the policies of the Federal Reserve itself. These can be dealt with, if at all, only by policies in each specific area.","PeriodicalId":45671,"journal":{"name":"Review of Keynesian Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"3","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The quasi-inflation of 2021–2022: a case of bad analysis and worse response\",\"authors\":\"J. Galbraith\",\"doi\":\"10.4337/roke.2023.02.04\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The theoretical construct of pure inflation is of no use in understanding the price events of 2021 and 2022 in the United States. By extension, the conventional tools of the Phillips Curve, NAIRU, potential output and money–supply growth are equally useless. By further extension, the ‘anti-inflation’ policies of the Federal Reserve have acted on asset markets (which are not part of theoretical inflation) while taking credit for the end to a price process in produced goods that was transitory in any event. The Federal Reserve is now stuck in a posture guaranteed to destabilize economic activity sooner or later, while the economy remains vulnerable to additional potential price shocks emanating from the same sources already seen, including real resources, supply chains, wars, pandemics and the policies of the Federal Reserve itself. These can be dealt with, if at all, only by policies in each specific area.\",\"PeriodicalId\":45671,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Review of Keynesian Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-04-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"3\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Review of Keynesian Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2023.02.04\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of Keynesian Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2023.02.04","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

摘要

纯通货膨胀的理论结构对于理解美国2021年和2022年的价格事件毫无用处。由此推而深，菲利普斯曲线、NAIRU、潜在产出和货币供应增长等传统工具同样毫无用处。进一步推而广之，美联储的“反通胀”政策在资产市场(不属于理论通胀的一部分)上发挥了作用，同时也因生产商品价格过程的结束而受到赞誉，而这个过程无论如何都是短暂的。美联储现在的姿态注定迟早会破坏经济活动的稳定，而经济仍然容易受到来自已经看到的相同来源的额外潜在价格冲击的影响，包括实际资源、供应链、战争、流行病和美联储本身的政策。如果有的话，这些问题只能通过每个特定领域的政策来解决。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

The quasi-inflation of 2021–2022: a case of bad analysis and worse response

The theoretical construct of pure inflation is of no use in understanding the price events of 2021 and 2022 in the United States. By extension, the conventional tools of the Phillips Curve, NAIRU, potential output and money–supply growth are equally useless. By further extension, the ‘anti-inflation’ policies of the Federal Reserve have acted on asset markets (which are not part of theoretical inflation) while taking credit for the end to a price process in produced goods that was transitory in any event. The Federal Reserve is now stuck in a posture guaranteed to destabilize economic activity sooner or later, while the economy remains vulnerable to additional potential price shocks emanating from the same sources already seen, including real resources, supply chains, wars, pandemics and the policies of the Federal Reserve itself. These can be dealt with, if at all, only by policies in each specific area.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Review of Keynesian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Review of Keynesian Economics (ROKE) is dedicated to the promotion of research in Keynesian economics. Not only does that include Keynesian ideas about macroeconomic theory and policy, it also extends to microeconomic and meso-economic analysis and relevant empirical and historical research. The journal provides a forum for developing and disseminating Keynesian ideas, and intends to encourage critical exchange with other macroeconomic paradigms. The journal is dedicated to the development of Keynesian theory and policy. In our view, Keynesian theory should hold a similar place in economics to that held by the theory of evolution in biology. Many individual economists still work within the Keynesian paradigm, but intellectual success demands institutional support that can leverage those individual efforts. The journal offers such support by providing a forum for developing and sharing Keynesian ideas. Not only does that include ideas about macroeconomic theory and policy, it also extends to microeconomic and meso-economic analysis and relevant empirical and historical research. We see a bright future for the Keynesian approach to macroeconomics and invite the economics profession to join us by subscribing to the journal and submitting manuscripts.