多原因世界中难以捉摸的阿尔法和贝塔控制

IF 2.5 3区心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL

Basic and Applied Social Psychology Pub Date : 2020-01-20 DOI:10.1080/01973533.2020.1714622

K. Fiedler

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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要几乎所有的科学媒体，包括最负盛名的期刊，都实施了严格的α和（1–β）控制规则，分别假设H0和H1，以量化显著结果的概率。然而，对α和β的估计建立在一个不成立的假设之上，即因变量中的系统效应ΔY不能由H1中所述和H0中否定的影响ΔX以外的任何其他因果影响引起。然而，在给定的研究中，与ΔX相关的ΔY的经验证据总是可以反映外部的因果影响，因为没有任何治疗或测量工具能够分别提供X和Y的纯粹测量。因此，α和β无法量化特定研究中的错误概率。

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Elusive Alpha and Beta Control in a Multicausal World

Abstract Virtually all scientific outlets, including the most prestigious journals, have implemented strict rules of α and (1–β) control, supposed to quantify the probability of a significant result assuming H0 and H1, respectively. However, estimation of α and β rests on the untenable assumption that a systematic effect ΔY in the dependent variable cannot be brought about by any other causal influence than the influence ΔX stated in H1 and negated in H0. Yet, in a given study, empirical evidence on ΔY related to ΔX can always reflect extraneous causal influences, because no treatment or measurement tool affords a pure measure of X and Y, respectively. Consequently, α and β cannot quantify error probabilities in specific studies.

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来源期刊

Basic and Applied Social Psychology PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Basic and Applied Social Psychology (BASP) emphasizes the publication of outstanding research articles, but also considers literature reviews, criticism, and methodological or theoretical statements spanning the entire range of social psychological issues. The journal will publish basic work in areas of social psychology that can be applied to societal problems, as well as direct application of social psychology to such problems. The journal provides a venue for a broad range of specialty areas, including research on legal and political issues, environmental influences on behavior, organizations, aging, medical and health-related outcomes, sexuality, education and learning, the effects of mass media, gender issues, and population problems.