当排名表出现时:结果偏差会导致信息效率低下的市场吗?

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13163

Raphael Flepp, Oliver Merz, Egon Franck

{"title":"当排名表出现时:结果偏差会导致信息效率低下的市场吗?","authors":"Raphael Flepp, Oliver Merz, Egon Franck","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13163","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study whether outcome bias persists in markets with actors who are financially incentivized to make optimal decisions. We test whether inherently noisy match outcomes from European football are correctly incorporated into prices from a betting exchange market. We find that market prices overestimate (underestimate) the winning probability of teams that previously overperformed (underperformed) in terms of match outcomes compared to their performance based on “expected goals.” This pattern is mirrored in negative (positive) betting returns on overperforming (underperforming) teams. These results suggest that even competitive market mechanisms fail to completely erase outcome bias.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"62 1","pages":"414-429"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13163","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?\",\"authors\":\"Raphael Flepp, Oliver Merz, Egon Franck\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ecin.13163\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We study whether outcome bias persists in markets with actors who are financially incentivized to make optimal decisions. We test whether inherently noisy match outcomes from European football are correctly incorporated into prices from a betting exchange market. We find that market prices overestimate (underestimate) the winning probability of teams that previously overperformed (underperformed) in terms of match outcomes compared to their performance based on “expected goals.” This pattern is mirrored in negative (positive) betting returns on overperforming (underperforming) teams. These results suggest that even competitive market mechanisms fail to completely erase outcome bias.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51380,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Inquiry\",\"volume\":\"62 1\",\"pages\":\"414-429\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13163\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Inquiry\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecin.13163\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Inquiry","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecin.13163","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究的是，在有经济激励做出最优决策的参与者的市场中，结果偏差是否会持续存在。我们测试了欧洲足球比赛的固有噪声结果是否被正确纳入博彩交易所市场的价格中。我们发现，与基于 "预期进球数 "的表现相比，市场价格高估（低估）了之前在比赛结果方面表现过高（过低）的球队的获胜概率。这种模式反映在对表现出色（表现不佳）球队的投注回报为负（正）。这些结果表明，即使是竞争性市场机制也无法完全消除结果偏差。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?

We study whether outcome bias persists in markets with actors who are financially incentivized to make optimal decisions. We test whether inherently noisy match outcomes from European football are correctly incorporated into prices from a betting exchange market. We find that market prices overestimate (underestimate) the winning probability of teams that previously overperformed (underperformed) in terms of match outcomes compared to their performance based on “expected goals.” This pattern is mirrored in negative (positive) betting returns on overperforming (underperforming) teams. These results suggest that even competitive market mechanisms fail to completely erase outcome bias.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Economic Inquiry ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published since 1962, (formerly Western Economic Journal), EI is widely regarded as one of the top scholarly journals in its field. Besides containing research on all economics topic areas, a principal objective is to make each article understandable to economists who are not necessarily specialists in the article topic area. Nine Nobel laureates are among EI long list of prestigious authors.