21世纪俄罗斯人口问题研究

Y. Simagin
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摘要

摘要当今俄罗斯面临着严重的人口问题,这些问题一直是政府政策和媒体关注的焦点。由于人口迁移研究是人口学的一个专题,需要单独进行分析,因此本文将重点放在人口自然变化的问题上。在科学文献中,对俄罗斯人口问题的研究代表了一个独特的视角。专家们精通这一主题,能够解决“外界”忽视的细微差别。许多社会科学家对政府解决俄罗斯人口问题的努力持批评态度。政府的成就往往被淡化,因为它们并没有完全成功。首先,尽管俄罗斯的死亡率在21世纪的大部分时间里都在下降,但与大多数欧洲国家相比仍然很高。其次,尽管俄罗斯的出生率高于大多数欧洲国家,但仍低于世界平均水平。这两个事实既有正面的解释,也有负面的解释。尽管如此,所有的人口预测都表明,俄罗斯的人口在未来几十年将继续自然下降。为了解决这个问题,有必要研究新的方法和制定新的人口政策,这只有通过所有俄罗斯人口学家的共同努力才能实现,尽管他们在理论和实践上存在分歧。只有对拟议的政策进行科学研究并适应俄罗斯的实际情况,国家项目人口统计和相关项目才能帮助解决这些问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Study of Russia’s Demographic Problems in the Twenty-First Century
ABSTRACT Russia today faces acute demographic problems, which have been the focus of government policy and media attention. Since studies of population migration are a special topic of demography that requires a separate analysis, the article focuses on the problems of natural population change. In the scientific literature, the study of Russia’s demographic problems represents a distinct perspective. The experts are well versed in the subject and can address nuances that are overlooked “from the outside.” Many social scientists are critical of the government’s attempts to solve Russia’s demographic problems. Government achievements are often downplayed because they have not been completely successful. First, although Russia’s mortality rate has declined for most of the twenty-first century, it is still high when compared to most European countries. Second, although Russia’s birth rate is higher than in most European countries, it is still below the world average. These two facts have both positive and negative interpretations. Nevertheless, all demographic projections indicate that Russia’s population will continue to naturally decline in the coming decades. To solve this problem, it is necessary to research new approaches and develop new demographic policies, which are possible only through the combined efforts of all Russian demographers, despite their theoretical and practical disagreements. The national project Demography and related programs can help address these problems only if the proposed policies are scientifically studied and adapted to real Russian conditions.
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