Policy evaluations of the Renewable Fuel Standard and agricultural land use changes in three Midwestern states for a decade: variables that influence significant changes in crop decisions are not all about ethanol

Abstract The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has been highly successful in developing the biofuels industry in the United States. However, opponents claim the RFS is directly responsible for increased agricultural land use change, primarily increased corn production at the expense of other crops. This study addresses these claims and concludes multiple variables, independent of the RFS, impact these changes. Agricultural land use changes for acres planted in corn and soybeans in the top three corn-producing states (Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska) were studied. Three categories of independent variables were tested to determine their association with agricultural land use changes: (1) weather, including crop development and precipitation; (2) commodity prices at planting; and (3) acreage enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). A microanalysis of the 10 counties in each state with the most change was also conducted. This analysis supports the conclusion that the RFS cannot be solely responsible for agricultural land use change. Most notably, excessive planting season precipitation and commodity prices had the greatest influence on agricultural land use changes. The success of the RFS should not be associated with causing agricultural land use change, as the RFS is simply a small component of a more complex system.