Revealing the true navigability of the Northern Sea Route from ice conditions and weather observations

ABSTRACT The authors analyzed the navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and developed the pathfinding algorithm for its strategic assessment. It creates a framework connecting weather observations with shipping operational parameters: travel speed, travel time, travel distance, the necessity of icebreaker escort. It is based on the A* algorithm, the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) methodology, and empirical relationships between ship’s speed and environmental data. The idea is to minimize travel time since sailing through areas with severe weather conditions requires speed reduction. The objective function finds the fastest safe path with minimal icebreaker escort. We used 2019–2020 environmental data to test the algorithm and analyzed daily optimal NSR transit routes for Eastbound and Westbound directions. It was shown that environmental parameters significantly affect the vessel’s path, while ice parameters make the largest contribution. Depending on the ship’s ice class and sailing season, it takes between 11 and 38 days to complete the entire route. All obtained operational parameters are valuable for assessing transportation costs, profitability, and riskiness of NSR. We provide their seasonal, monthly, and weekly values, and statistical parameters.